A publicly available expert-level newsletter on Mozambique news reports and clippings from the middle of May predicts that France might launch a limited military intervention in northern Mozambique's Cabo Delgado Province in order to protect the offshore energy deposits of its national champion Total, which necessitates an analysis of such a move's strategic consequences if it does indeed come to pass.
8 June, 2021
IGAD's Chinese-backed infrastructure projects will eventually create a regional version of Beijing's vision for a Community of Common Destiny, one of the central philosophical tenets behind BRI.
8 June, 2021
The high hopes that many had for a radical improvement of the situation in the Horn of Africa just a few short years ago have been shattered by a combination of internal and international conflicts centered on Ethiopia, but it might be premature to predict that the region won't ever recover since Prime Minister Abiy could drastically turn everything around once more should he have the political will to do so.
6 June, 2021
The U.S. has recently imposed sanctions against some Ethiopian officials who Washington blames for alleged human rights abuses in the country’s restive Tigray Province. The background context is that members of the previously most important party of the former Ethiopian ruling coalition, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), recently split with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s new Prosperity Party ruling coalition over serious domestic political differences related to his vision for the country.
6 June, 2021
Every four years, US intelligence community analysts try to predict what is going to happen in the next 20 years. Although events regularly take place that show how difficult it is to make predictions for even the next five years (I’m talking about predictions, not plans), the US intelligence community continues putting together these reports using a set template.
3 May, 2021
Central documents are Joint Declaration on the Establishment of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the Russian Federation and the Republic of South Africa, signed during the working visit of President Vladimir Putin to the RSA timed to BRICS Summit in Durban in March 2013 and the Treaty on Friendship and Partnership concluded within the official visit of President of Russia Vladimir Putin to the RSA in September 2016.
19 April, 2021
The U.S. will ignore the message from Anchorage. It is already testing China over Taiwan, and is preparing an escalation in Ukraine, to test Russia.
15 March, 2021
On 20 July 2020, the Egyptian parliament unilaterally voted in favour of the possible use of the country’s armed forces abroad. It is clear that these armed forces will be used in one place only – Libya.
25 January, 2021
Chronically impoverished and formerly civil war-torn Mozambique has the potential to become the world's fourth-largest natural gas exporter due to its vast offshore reserves in the extreme northeastern part of the country, but this Southern African state's ambitious plans are at risk of being derailed by the ever-intensifying Islamist-driven Hybrid War in that strategic corner of its territory, one which might ultimately require foreign military assistance to resolve after the national armed forces proved themselves incapable of containing this threat.
30 November, 2020
